Paris nor Brussels! Stop
terrorism! We want to live in peace with all
regardless of their religion, color and origin. Therefore, we condemn any
kind of terrorism!
Ne više Pariz ni Brisel! Stop terorizam!
Mi želimo živjeti u miru sa svim našim
bez obzira koje su vjere, boje kože i porijekla.
Zato mi osuđujemo svaku vrstu terorizma!
Manal Saadi Postgraduate researcher in International Relations and Diplomacy at the Geneva-based UMEF University
doc.dr.Jasna Cosabic professor of IT law and EU law at Banja Luka College,
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Aleksandra Krstic Studied in Belgrade (Political Science) and in Moscow (Plekhanov’s IBS). Currently, a post-doctoral researcher at the Kent University in Brussels (Intl. Relations). Specialist for the
MENA-Balkans frozen and controlled conflicts.
Dr. Swaleha Sindhi is Assistant Professor in the Department of Educational Administration, the Maharaja Sayajirao University of
Baroda, India. Decorated educational practitioner Dr. Sindhi is a frequent columnist on related topics, too. She is the Vice President
of Indian Ocean Comparative Education Society (IOCES). Contact:
It is an Ankara-based
journalist and notable author.
She is engaged with the leading Turkish dailies and weeklies for
nearly three decades as a columnist, intervieweer and editor.
Her words are prolifically published and quoted in Turkish,
French an English.
By İLNUR ÇEVIK Modified from the original: They killed 1 Saddam and created 1,000 others (Daily Sabah)
Aine O’Mahony Aine O'Mahony has a bachelor in Law and Political Science at
the Catholic Institute of Paris and is currently a master's student
of Leiden University in the International Studies programme.Contact:
Elodie Pichon Elodie Pichon has a
bachelor in Law and Political Science at the Catholic Institute of
Paris and is currently doing a MA in Geopolitics, territory and
Security at King's College London. Contact :
a MA candidate of the George
Washington University, Elliott School of International Affairs. Her
research focus is on cross-Pacific security and Asian studies,
particularly on the Sino-U.S. relations and on the foreign policy
and politics of these two.
ALESSANDRO CIPRI Born in Chile and raised in Rome, Alessandro
Cipri has just finished his postgraduate studies at the department
of War Studies of King's College London, graduating with distinction
from the Master's Degree in "Intelligence and International
Security". Having served in the Italian Army's "Alpini" mountain
troops, he has a keen interest in national security, military
strategy, insurgency theory, and terrorism studies. His Master's
dissertation was on the impact of drug trafficking on the evolution
of the Colombian FARC.
Ms. Lingbo ZHAO is a candidate of the Hong Kong Baptist
University, Department of Government and International Studies. Her
research interest includes Sino-world, Asia and cross-Pacific.
Elodie Pichon, Ms. Elodie Pichon, Research Fellow of the IFIMES Institute, DeSSA Department. This native Parisian is a Master in Geopolitics,
Territory and Security from the King’s College, London, UK.
Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey currently lectures on Digital-Diplomacy. "Mo"
has benefited from a diverse career in investment banking & diplomacy, but
his passion has been the new avenues of communication. He was Bosnia &
Herzegovina's first Ambassador to the United Nations, Agent to the
International Court of Justice, Foreign Minister & Signatory of the Rome
Statute establishing the International Criminal Court. He also played
American football opting for a scholarship to Tulane University in New
Orleans after being admitted to Harvard, oh well!!
Amanda Janoo is an Alternative
Economic Policy Adviser to governments and development
organizations. Graduate from Cambridge University with an MPhil in
Development Studies, Amanda worked at the United Nations Industrial
Development Organization (UNIDO) supporting government's with
evidence-based industrial policy design for inclusive and
sustainable growth. Her research focus is on the relationship
between international trade and employment generation. She has
worked throughout Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa promoting greater
economic self-determination and empowerment.
Michael dr. Logies,
Endy Bayuni The writer, editor-in-chief of
The Jakarta Post, took part
in the Bali Civil Society and Media Forum, organized by the
Institute for Peace and Democracy and the Press Council, on Dec.5-6.
Bellevrat is the WEO Energy Analysts
Kira West Kira West is the WEO Energy Analysts
Victor Davis Hanson— NRO contributor Victor Davis
Hanson is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and the author,
most recently, of The Second World Wars: How the First Global
Conflict Was Fought and Won.
Chief Research Fellow at the Primakov Institute of World Economy and
International Relations (Moscow, Russia). In 1989-1991 was a member
of Soviet negotiating team at START-1 negotiations (Defense and
Ingrid Stephanie Noriega
Ingrid Stephanie Noriega is junior specialist in International
Relations, Latina of an immense passion for human rights, democratic
accountability, and conflict resolution studies as it relates to
international development for the Latin America and Middle East –
regions of her professional focus.
Syeda Dhanak Fatima Hashmi
Author is a Foreign Policy Analyst and Research Head
at a think tank based in Islamabad. She has done Master of
Philosophy (M.Phil.) in Governance and Public Policy. Her areas of
research include both regional as well as global issues of
contemporary international relations.
(the EU Legislation, ASEAN and its
Prof. Melda Kamil Ariadno and
Prof. Anis H Bajrektarević
While our troposphere is dangerously
polluted, one other space – that of intangible world, created by the
interconnected technology – follows the same pattern: a cyberspace.
Additionally, our cyberspace becomes increasingly brutalised by its
rapid monetisation and weaponisation. It mainly occurs through
privacy erosion. How to protect effectively individuals and their
fundamental human rights, and how to exercise a right for dignity
> The EU now offers a model legislation to its Member States, and by
its transformative power (spill-over) to the similar supranational
projects elsewhere (particularly ASEAN, but also the AU, OAS, SCO,
SAARC, LAS, etc.), and the rest of world.
Rules and regulations to protect
personal data do not trigger many sympathies. The corporate world
sees it as an unnecessary deterrent; as a limit to their growth –
more to pay and less or slower to yield, innovate and expand.
Governments would traditionally wish the rules should apply to every
societal stakeholder but themselves. And citizenry by large too
frequently behave benevolent, nearly careless whether their data is
harvested or safeguarded at all.
However, such legislation is needed today more than ever before. The
latest round of technological advancements was rapid, global and
uneven. No wonder that in the aftermath of the so-called
IT-revolutions, our world suffers from technological asymmetries:
assertive big corporations and omnipresent mighty governments on one
side and ordinary citizenry on the other. Even in the most advanced
democracies today – such as the EU, personal autonomy is at the huge
risk: Everyday simple, almost trivial, choices such as what to read,
which road to take, what to wear, eat, watch or listen are governed
(or at least filtered) by algorithms that run deep under the surface
of software and devices. Algoritmisation of ‘will’ is so corrosive
and deep that users are mostly unaware of the magnitude to which
daily data processing rules over their passions, drives and choices.
Clearly, technology of today serves not only a Weberian
predictability imperative – to further rationalise society. It makes
society less safe and its individuals less free.
Societies are yet to wake up to this (inconvenient) truth. In the
internet age of mobile, global and instant communications, people
tend to focus more on the ‘here-us-now’ trends: goods, services, and
experiences that the IT offers. Individuals are less interested on
the ways in which privacy is compromised by software, its
originators and devices – all which became an unnoticed but
indispensable part of modern life. Despite a wish of many to grasp
and know how data processing and harvesting affects them, population
at large yet has no appetite for details.
But, the trend is here to stay – a steady erosion of privacy: bigger
quantities of data are harvested about larger number of persons on a
daily, if not hourly basis. Corporations and the central state
authorities want more data and are less shy in how they obtain and
Prevention of the personal information misuse (PIM) —intended or
not—is the main reason the European Union (EU) introduced the new
set of provisions, as of May 2018. Hence, the General Data
Protection Regulation (GDPR) – as the legislation is known – is an
ambitious attempt to further regulate digital technology, especially
in respect to the private data protection. It is of course in
conformity with provisions of both the Universal and European
Charter of Human Rights, which hold the protection of human dignity
and privacy as an indispensable, fundamental human right.
The intention of legislator behind the GDPR is twofold: to regulate
domestically as well as to inspire and galvanise internationally.
The GDPR is meant to open a new chapter in the Internet’s history at
home, while creating, at the same time, a roadmap for other state
and corporate sector actors beyond the EU. The challenge is clear:
to reconcile the rights of individuals to data protection with the
legitimate interests of business and government.
For the rest of the world, the GDPR should be predictive,
inspirational and eventually obligational. Lack of acting now could
open a space for the abuse of power – be it for illegitimate
corporate or authoritarian gains of the hidden societal actors. In
such a negative scenario – on a long run – losers are all.
Historically, victimisation of individuals (through constant
suspension of liberties and freedoms) ends up in a state or
corporate fascism, and that one in a self-destruction of society as
COMPREHENSIVE LEGISLATION AS POWERFUL DETERRENT
The Internet age exposes individuals in an unprecedented ways to the
domestic or foreign predatory forces. Everybody is tempted to
participate in digital economy or digital social interaction. This
cannot go without revealing personal information to large state or
non-state entities of local or international workings. If the field
is not regulated, the moment such information leaves its proprietor,
it can be easily and cheaply stored, analysed, further disseminated
and shared without any knowledge or consent of it originator.
So far, neither market forces nor the negative publicity has
seriously hindered companies and governments from tapping on and
abusing this immense power. Nothing but a bold and comprehensive
legislation is efficient deterrent, which stops the worst misuse.
Only the legal provisions to protect personal data may serve a
purpose of special and general prevention:
Be it in case a local or transnational corporate greed, governmental
negligent or malicious official, or the clandestine interaction of
the two (such as unauthorised access to personal phone and Internet
records, as well as the unverified or inaccurate health and related
data used to deny person from its insurance, loan, or work).
While totally absent elsewhere, early European attempts to legislate
a comprehensive regulatory system of personal data protection have
tired its best. Still, the EU’s Data Protection Directive of 1995
was falling short on several deliverables. (It was partly due to
early stage of internet development, when the future significance of
cyberspace was impossible to fully grasp and anticipate). Hence,
this instrument failed to comprehensively identify the wrongdoings
it sought to prevent, pre-empt and mitigate. The 1995 text also
suffered from a lack of (logical and legal) consistency when it came
to directing and instructing the individual EU member states (EU MS)
on how to domesticate data privacy and promulgate it the body of
their respective national legislation. Finally, the GDPR solves both
of these problems.
This instrument of 2018 clearly stipulates on discrimination
combating (including the politically or religiously motived
hate-contents), authentication-related identity theft, fraud,
financial crime, reputational harm (social networks mobbing,
harassments and intimidation). Moreover, the European Commission
(EC) has stated that the GDPR will strengthen the MS economies by
recovering people’s trust in the security and sincerity of digital
commerce, which has suffered lately of a numerous high-profile data
breaches and infringements.
However, the most important feature (and a legal impact) of the
GDPR is its power of being a
This means that individuals can invoke it before the MS
courts without any reference to the positive national legislation.
That guaranties both speed and integrity to this supranational
instrument – no vocatio leagis and no unnecessary
domestication of the instrument through national constituencies.
Conclusively, the 2018 instrument is further strengthened by an extra-territorial reach – a notion that make is
applicable to any entity that operates in the EU, even if entity is
not physically situated in the EU.
This practically means that each entity, in every sector and of
every size, which processes personal data of the EU citizens, must
comply with the GDPR. It obliges governments and their services (of
national or sub-national levels); health, insurance and bank
institutes; variety of Internet and mobile telephony service
providers; media outlets and other social data gathering
enterprises; labour, educational and recreational entities – in
short, any subject that collects digital information about
The GDPR further strengthens accountability principle. The state and
commercial actors hold direct and objective responsibility for a
personal data collecting, storing and processing (including its
drain or dissemination). Clearly, this EU instrument strengthens the
right for information privacy (as a part of elementary human right –
right to privacy) by protecting individuals from misappropriation of
their personal data for a harvesting, monetisation or
(socio-political) weaponisation purpose.
Namely, the GDPR gives individuals the right to request a transfer
of their personal data (account and history information) from one
commercial entity to another (e.g. from one bank or phone provider
to another). Another right is to request – at short notice and for
an unspecified reason – the commercial enterprise to stop both the
data collection and the marketing dissemination, or to demand
clarification on a marketing methods and nature of services
provided. This instrument also offers individuals the right to
request that their personal data are deleted (being zipped and sent
back to its proprietor beforehand) – as stipulated in art.17 (the
right to be forgotten).
The GDPR calls upon all operating entities to hire a data protection
officer as to ensure full compliance with the new rules. It also
invites all data collecting entities to conduct impact assessments –
in order to determine scope frequency, outreach and consequences of
personal data harvesting and processing. (For example, if certain
entity wished to introduce biometric authentication for its
employees and visitors entering daily its premises, it would need at
first to run an assessment – a study that answers on the necessity
and impact of that new system as well as the exposures it creates
and possible risk mitigation measures.)
The GDPR obliges every entity that gathers data to minimise amount
and configuration of personal data they harvest, while maximizing
the security of that data. (For instance, if the auto dealer or
travel agency requires potential customers to fill out the form to
request a price quote, the form can ask only for information
relevant to the product or services in question.)
The new legislation also mandates data gathering entities to notify
the authorities – without any delay – whenever they suspect or
witness a personal data breach. Conclusively, the GDPR obliges
entities to present the public with clean and through information
about the personal data they harvest and process—and clearly why
they do so.
On the sanction side, the GDPR supports the regulators with new
enforcement tools, including the norm setting, monitoring of and
enforcement of compliance. For a non-compliance, the instrument
prescribes steep fines.
To answer adequately the accountability standards enacted by this EU
legislation will certainly invite large data gathering entities to
bear significant investments. However, for the sake of credibility
outreach and efficiency, they will have stimuli to introduce the new
procedures and systems within the EU, but also beyond – wherever
their operations are present. Complementary to it, the GDPR
stipulates that if an entity transfers personal data out of the EU,
it must safeguard that the data is handled in the new location the
same way like within the EU. By this simple but far-reaching and
effective spill over notion, the standards embodied by the GDPR will
be delivered to the rest of the world. Hence, this instrument is not
(only) an inner code of conduct that brings an outer appeal; it is a
self-evolving and self-replicating standard of behaviour for our
common (digital) future.
ASEAN, INDO-PACIFIC, ASIA
It is obvious that the stipulations of the
GDPR would serve well interests of Republic of Indonesia (RI). That
is actually in line with a very spirit of the 1945 Constitution,
which obliges the state to protect, educate and prosper the
Indonesian people. This supreme state act clearly proclaims that the
respecting individual personal data is resting upon the two
principles of the Pancasila. Namely these of; Fair and Civilized
Humanity. Mutual grant and observance of everyone’s elementary
rights is an essence of freedom and overall advancement of society.
The government, with the mandate of its
authority to protect the public (public trust doctrine), must manage
the personal data fairly and accountably. The GDPR also encourages
the formation of an independent personal data protection supervisory
institution so that it can correct the policies and rules of the
bureaucracy and state administration to act accordingly in managing
the personal data of the population. Moreover, every democratic
government should be more proactive in protecting society when comes
to the management of the personal data of its residents.
Interestingly, the Indonesian legislation
already has instruments that follow notion of the GDPR. Thus, the
Law No. 11 on Information and Electronic Transactions of 2008 (by a
letter of its article 2) emphasizes the principle of
extra-territorial jurisdiction. (In this particular case, it is
related to the cross-border transactions. Indonesia should always
safeguard its national interests: the RI jurisdiction stretches on
any legal action that apply in Indonesia and/or carried out by
Indonesian citizens. But it also applies to legal actions carried
out outside of Indonesian jurisdiction by Indonesian citizens or a
foreigner legally residing in RI, or Indonesian legal entities and
foreign legal entities that produce legal effects in Indonesia.
This of course assumes the very nature of a
use of Information Technology for Electronic Information and
Electronic Transactions, which can be cross-territorial and even
universal. What is assumed by this Law as "harming the interests of
Indonesia" goers beyond pure national economic interests, protecting
strategic data, national dignity, defense and security, the state of
sovereignty, citizens, and Indonesian legal entities.)
When comes to the Right to be Forgotten (Right
for Privacy and Right for Dignity), Indonesia must see it as a
principle of real protection that is in the best interests of data
owners. Further on, such a right should be strengthened by the
principle of 'without undue delay', as to avoid the administrative
obligation to request a court decision to uphold the right. On a
long run, it will surely benefit businesses far more than the
personal data originators themselves.
LEADING BY EXAMPLE
In line with the Right to Portability Data
elaborated by the GDPR, Indonesia also needs to closer examine the
EU instruments. Hence, the EU Regulation No.910 / 2014 concerning
electronic identification, authentication and trust services (eIDAS)
offers an idea how to harmonize the provision of digital identity
and personal data in realm of electronic communications. (Electronic
identification and authentication is a technology process that has
an economic value. Such a business opportunity should be reconciled
with a safety and security standards when comes to use of and
traffic with of personal data for commercial interests.)
Regarding security, Indonesia must immediately
have a clear policy on Cryptography to protect personal data.
Cryptography is a double-use process; it can be utilised for
civilian purposes, but it can also be used for the vital national
interests, such as defense and security. Therefore, privacy and
cybersecurity protection is a complementary concept of protection.
Holistic approach strengthens the both rights of individuals as well
as protection of national interests, rather than it ever conflicts
one over the other.
Finally, the ASEAN Declaration of Human Rights
in its article 21 stipulates that the protection of personal data is
elementary part of Privacy. As one of the founding members, a
country that even hosts the Organisation’s HQ, Indonesia must
observe the notions of this Human Rights Charter. That is the
additional reason why RI has to lead by example.
The EU’s GDPR clearly encourages a paradigm
shift within the public services and government administration
services on national, subnational and supranational level for all
the ASEAN member states. It is to respect the fundamental freedoms
and liberties, a quality that will shield population from random and
ill-motivated arbitrary judgments of individual rights under the
pretext of public interest.
Indonesia and ASEAN can take a lot of learning
from the dynamics of the EU’s regulation of GDPR and e-IDAS as to
its own benefit – to foster its own security and to elevate a trust
in regional e-commerce within the ASEAN economic zone. Since the
ASEAN (if combined) is the 4th largest world economy,
this is a call of future that already starts now. After all the EU
and ASEAN – each from its side of Eurasia – are twin grand projects
of necessity, passion and vision.
Naturally, for anyone outside, Indonesia and
ASEAN are already seen as the world's e-commerce hub, of pivotal
importance far beyond the Asia-Pacific theatre.
Vienna/Jakarta 28 DEC 2018
About the authors:
Melda Kamil Ariadno(SH,
LLM, PhD) is a
Professor of International Law at the Faculty of Law Universitas
Indonesia, Jakarta. She is currently the Dean of the Faculty of Law
Universitas Indonesia and the Head of Center for Sustainable Ocean
Policy. She obtained her bachelor’s degree from Universitas
Indonesia in 1992. Then, she received both her LL.M. and Ph.D. from
the University of Washington in 1995 and 2011, respectively. She has
served as legalexpert for several governmental
bodies among others the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries.
Prof. Anis H Bajrektarevicis chairperson and professor in international law
and global political studies, Vienna, Austria. He has authored six
books (for American and European publishers) and numerous articles
on, mainly, geopolitics energy and technology. For the past decades,
he has over 1,200 hours of teaching on the subject International
Law. Two of his books are related to cyber space, cyber law and
Professor is editor of the NY-based GHIR (Geopolitics, History and
Intl. Relations) journal, and editorial board member of several
similar specialized magazines on three continents.
book is to be realised in New York in December.
Since President Erdogan has been successful in every
election he has entered for years, there is a view that "Erdogan
will never lose" which is accepted by most of the people in Turkey.
This is actually a reasonable view because, despite several adverse
events, Erdogan and the AK Party have been superior to the polls for
I think that President Erdogan will win the next
election, even if he is not as strong as he used to be, as long as
his health allows him and he wants to be in the political arena.
But of course, it is a fact that Erdogan is not as
powerful as he was a few years ago, and the criticism towards the
Erdogan government and the country's course, including those who
voted for him, is too much to be underestimated. We can also
understand this from the alliance he had formed with the president
of the Nationalist Movement Party, Devlet Bahçeli, which had
criticized him repeatedly in the past. The AK Party, chaired by
Erdogan, is no longer a party that will win the elections alone.
But it should also be noted that AK Party is a lucky
party. Because, CHP (Republican People's Party), which has been
acting as the main opposition party for years, is not a party that
can take over the majority of the people because of its constant
chaos, wrong choices and attitudes. You may not be able to see
another major opposition party, which draws an amateur image like
CHP, in any country of Europe.
As a matter of fact, many secret meetings have been
organized with many people who want to be in charge of the country's
government after Erdogan. I want to write the names of the different
profiles that could play the first chair in the leadership of Turkey
The only one who can win elections against Erdogan
Meral Akşener, who was elected to the parliament for
the first time in 1995, while President Erdogan was the mayor of
Istanbul, and served as the first female Minister of Internal
Affairs in Turkish history after a year, is a respected name for her
political experience by many people today.
In 2001, Akşener, who took part in the founding
stages of the AK Party with two names, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and
Abdullah Gül, who later served as the Prime Minister and the
President, left the party as a result of disagreements in the
establishment of the AK Party, then turned into a very popular
political icon in the Nationalist Movement Party, which is one of
the most well-established parties of Turkey.
After the failed election results of the Nationalist
Movement Party, where she served as a member of parliament and
parliamentary deputy speaker for many years, Akşener, who rolled up
her sleeves to become the party's leader, has formed The Good Party
against the obstructions of Devlet Bahçeli, who is thought to run
the party with a dictatorial approach by many, and her party
achieved a successful result in its first year, surpassing the 10%
I think Meral Akşener is the only name to win the
election against President Erdogan, who has been superior to his
rivals in every election for years. Meral Akşener is a politician
who is at the forefront with her nationalism but keeps it in a very
good balance and she’s not a person like French Marine Le Pen, who
has rhetoric towards racism and fascism.
In Turkey, the majority of the population position
themselves as the center-right wing and both the AK Party and most
of the political parties that have been successful in the past are
center-right parties. Meral Akşener is a figure who is positioned in
the center-right wing, but she is also a strong social democrat
leader with strong rhetoric and sympathetic attitude.
I can already say that Meral Akşener will continue
her successful political graphics and that one day she will be at
the highest level of Turkish politics, although she is subjected to
a great deal of pressure from her party and her rise.
He loves Erdogan and the people love him.
Suleyman Soylu, who was the president of the
Democratic Party, which had an important place in Turkish political
history in the past as it elected three presidents and seven prime
ministers, became one of the most trusted names of President Erdogan
after a few years, even though he did politics in opposition to
Erdogan and the AK Party at the time.
Suleyman Soylu, who currently serves as the Minister
of Internal Affairs, is one of the most respected names of the
nationalist-conservative wing, just like Meral Akşener. Especially
in recent years, his successful and determined struggle against the
PKK, the terrorist organization that committed numerous murders in
Turkey and his being in the forefront of positive developments
regarding internal security has gained Suleyman Soylu a very
positive sympathy by the Turkish people.
However, the possibility of Minister Soylu taking
over the leadership of Turkey does not seem to be much at the
moment, because Minister Soylu, who has expressed his loyalty to
Erdogan at every opportunity, cannot make such a move when Erdogan
is still the President. He even made it clear that he was planning
to leave politics after Erdogan on a TV show he attended on CNN. But
of course, there is a saying in our country that "A period of 24
hours is a very long time for politics" and we can see that Soylu to
make a move for leading Turkey after Erdogan.
Besides, I have to say that apart from Suleyman Soylu,
politicians who are currently working at the AK Party will crave for
their seats in the AK Party in a possible disintegration process
because, people, who have the qualities of leadership to meet the
demands of the people like Erdogan, do not take part in the AKP
Perhaps the only hope of the left in Turkey
As I mentioned before, if we look at the dynamics of
Turkey, it is a very low possibility that a power with the left
understanding rule the country, but Muharrem Ince, who is backed by
the social democratic masses against Erdogan in the presidential
election on June 24, 2018, and who has the characteristics of a
leader that has been longed for years, is the strongest name on the
left that can change this dynamic.
It would not be wrong to say that Ince, who served as
a member of the Republican People's Party (CHP) since 2002 when AK
Party came to power, is Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu's biggest rival, who has
been sitting in the chair of the general presidency for years
despite the party's failed results. Although Muharrem Ince, who has
been competing against Kılıçdaroğlu at every CHP congress in recent
times, has not yet achieved this goal, but he is the is the most
important name forcing Kılıçdaroğlu to resign and it will be a
development that we can see very soon.
Muharrem Ince, who has already declared that he will
be a candidate for the presidency in the elections after five years,
has carried out a successful work in the elections a few months ago.
Despite the intense love of those who voted for him, he got 30% and
fell below Erdogan's 52% electoral success.
To become the leader of Turkey, Ince has to step up
on this rate and gain the sympathy of the right wing in Turkey. This
is difficult, but with its political attitude and populist style,
Ince can achieve it.
Turkish people may need the experience and
knowledge of their former prime minister
Ahmet Davutoglu, who was one of the most important
figures of the AK Party until a few years ago and who was both the
president of AK Party, and the Prime Minister of Turkey between 2014
and 2016, is a name with a reputation in AK Party although he had to
resign as a result of a ridiculous statement published by several
media oligarchs in Turkey.
It would not be wrong to say that Davutoglu, who has
not met with Erdogan in any way lately, has withdrawn into his shell
because he is not as active in political developments as he used to
be. I think that Davutoglu, who is said to be founding a strong
political party against Erdogan from time to time, should carry out
an active and correct opposition policy against Erdogan in order to
become Turkey's leader after Erdogan because, so to speak, it is not
possible for the people to sympathize with the return of a name that
is scratched and forced to withdraw to his shell by Erdogan to
active politics after Erdogan.
However, Davutoglu, who is touted as Ahmet Hodja in
the conservative sector, is one of the most experienced politicians
in the country and is always a name that is likely to be re-elected
to the top seat. One of Davutoglu's greatest advantages will be the
support given to him by some of the prominent figures who have
successfully taken part in Turkish politics.
There are other alternatives as well
As we often see in Turkish political history, a name
that is not known very much, may show up suddenly and become the
leader of the country. So even though I can guess a few names, we
should not forget that it may not be possible.
For example, Cihangir Islam, who is preparing
to succeed the wise leader of Felicity Party that once came to
power, Temel Karamollaoğlu, is a new hope of the highly conservative
group in Turkey, even if he is far from his former power. Islam, who
maintained his medical success in parliament and made a good
opposition, will be one of the most remarkable figures of the
parliament until the next general elections scheduled to take place
in 2023. At the same time, he is a politician with a vision that can
move Felicity Party and its masses, which is declared as reactionist
by some people, to a lot of innovations and to get votes from the
voters who are opposed to him.
If the wave of young leadership spreads to Turkey as
it did with Macron in France, with Kurz in Austria, with Trudeau in
Canada and with Tsipras in Greece, Faik Tunay, who became a
CHP deputy at a young age, is also a name that can play first chair
even though he is of central right origin. Tunay's strong
international connections and his ability to speak many important
languages will be a great advantage for him and for his leadership
of Turkey. Although Tunay has not been seen much in the political
arena lately, it is quite likely that he will progress in the right
direction at the right time, using his young age's advantage.
Of course, even if they haven't been involved in
politics until now, the successful names of the business world can
step in this direction in a possible conjuncture. Ali Koç,
who is the member of the country's richest and most respected
family, is the first to come to mind in this direction although he
is dealing with the very unsuccessful outcomes of the football club
he is currently president of. Although he has repeatedly stated that
he does not intend to enter politics, he is a businessman who can be
accepted by the public with his charisma and success. In the past,
we have witnessed ultra-rich names such as Cem Uzan and Cem Boyner
enter into politics and fail. Ali Koç, on the contrary, can be an
example of success.
In conclusion, I should say that the emergence of a
successful name from the business world to the leadership of Turkey
will not produce as negative results as in the case of Trump, the
first example in the world that comes to mind. At least in the
DECEMBER 28, 2018
Chairman, Vision & Global Trends,
International Institute for Global Analyses, www.vision-gt.eu
INHERITANCE OF THE 2018 TRANSFORMATIVE TRENDS
The main transformative trends in
2018 that will affect next year will concern at least the following
three different global and interconnected sectors: Economic&
Financial Area; Security; Dismantling of the Old World Order.
Economic& Financial Area
Regarding the economic and financial area, it will be necessary to
monitor the growing importance of advanced technologies and their
applications in the production cycles of the most industrial
nations. In the next year, we will face a sort of rationalization of
these production processes that will profoundly change the evolution
of the current social equilibrium within nations and also the
relations between states and large financial organizations.
According to some analytical studies, a third of US workforce (about
50 million people) could be transformed by 2020. Furthermore, we
will witness the explosion of new markets based on the technological
needs of the elderly and the disabled people. We will also face the
increase of cryptocurrencies. The knowledge and management of new
technologies - ICT, AI, blockchain. 3D printing mainly - will
constitute the challenge of the next decade between the major world
powers and the main investment groups.
The impact of the advanced technologies on geostrategic decisions
will increase. The new technologies will contribute to impressing,
in 2019, a decisive turning point in what we can define henceforth
as a new global revolution in military affairs. The
military-industrial-financial complexes of the major world powers
will undergo a complete transformation starting from 2019.
Dismantling of the Old World Order
Another important trend that will affect the global level concerns
the dismantling of the old world order based on the criteria of
multilateralism. In 2019, we will witness the weakening of large
global organizations such as the UN and the reorganization of
multilateral consultations regarding international trade, climate
issues and regulations on the use of new technologies. This will
happen for two main reasons. The first is due to the growing
presence and importance of global players of nations like China,
Russia, and India, who obviously try to implement their 360 degree
spheres of influence, even outside the old institutions born in the
so-called bipolar era, when the destinies of the world were
substantially decided in Moscow and Washington. The second reason is
due to the putting into practice of the “Trump Doctrine,” which,
over the past two years, has placed a particularly bilateral
strategy on U.S. foreign policy, upsetting the old equilibria.
2019: KEY GEOPOLITICAL CHALLENGES
A very important transformative trend will concern the European
Union. 2018 has been a very critical year for the EU, both on the
economic level, but above all on the political and social ones. 2019
will be a year in which the fate of the “European Common House” will
be decided. As a consequence of the neopopulist waves and the
so-called sovereignist ones that marked the social and political
life of the Europeans during 2017-2018, most likely, the elections
for the renewal of the European Parliament will reward the
anti-European parties. 2019 will therefore be a very unstable year
for the economy and politics of the European Union.
Regarding Europe’s role at global
level, we have to consider that the contentious relations between
the U.S. and China as well as with Russia will impact the European
Union in 2019.
For different and divergent aspects, the U.S., Russia, and China
have an interest in weakening the European Union.
For the U.S., with Europe in the grip of a political, economic, and
financial identity crisis, this situation would allow Washington to
“manage” the U.S. economic recovery, especially now that the
traditional British ally, thanks to Brexit, is released from the
obligations that tied it to Brussels. Moreover, at a geostrategic
level, the continuing European crisis allows the U.S. to gain time
in making costly decisions and responsibilities in financial terms
in the theatres of North Africa and the Middle East.
For Russia, the issue is more delicate and problematic. A weak
European Union, according to the Kremlin, would be more malleable in
relation to the Ukrainian issue and the sanctions regime that has
influenced the Russian economy since 2014. But this could be true,
for the short term. In fact, a European Union weakened in the medium
and long term would be at the mercy of the strategic interests of
the U.S., since the EU is the eastern periphery of the U.S.
geopolitical system, built at the end of the Second World War.
Ultimately, in the absence of a political EU, the true European
“glue” would consist only of NATO’s military-diplomatic device:
something that Moscow certainly should not wish.
A fragmented Europe, unable to have a coherent and unitary policy of
infrastructural development, does not realistically have the useful
force to negotiate - on the basis of equal geopolitical dignity -
with China on the great project of the New Silk Road. For this
reason, at the moment, a weak Europe is convenient for China. For
Beijing it is easier and cheaper to negotiate with individual EU
countries and, in some cases, even with regional administrations.
Moreover, the absence of a truly European foreign policy allows
China to operate in Africa without real competitors, apart from the
U.S. and Russia.
The main geopolitical challenges in Asia will concern relations
between the U.S., Japan, and China. Tokyo, although in line with
U.S. policies, could be a point of mediation between the different
positions of Washington and Beijing.
On the geostrategic level, Washington will have to follow up on the
initiatives launched in 2018 with Pyongyang for a complete
normalization of relations. It will be a bumpy route, because the
conflicting interests of the U.S. and the People’s Republic of China
remain in the background of the North Korean issue.
Another very controversial issue about the relations between the
U.S. and China will concern Tibet. In particular, in the first
months of 2019 Beijing and Washington will have to find a mediation
in reference to the effects of the “Reciprocal Access to Tibet Act”
(signed by President Trump at the end of 2018) that promotes the
access to Tibet of U.S. diplomats, journalists and citizens and
denies U.S. visas to Chinese officials considered responsible for
blocking access to Tibet.
Another issue that will have considerable geopolitical impacts at
regional and global levels is related to the Chinese project of the
New Silk Road. Beijing - in order to achieve its objectives - will
consolidate its relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran and the
U.S.-China trade tensions impact
During 2018, the Trump administration has conducted a real trade war
against China. In the next year this war will be in a certain way
perfected. We have already had warnings of such kind: the arrest of
Meng Wanzhou, chief financial officer and daughter of founder of
high-tech giant Huawei, constitutes an example of the escalation of
the U.S.-China tensions. The tensions between the U.S. and China are
not just commercial, but strategic. The U.S. and China compete for
technological supremacy. This strategic confrontation will affect
the entire global system, impacting the worldwide financial system
and determining choices of field between the various countries of
North Africa, Near and Middle East
In North Africa (particularly in Libya), Moscow's stabilizing
function is destined to grow in importance.
In 2019, we will witness a rearrangement of forces within the
quadrants of the Near and Middle East. Despite the Kashoggi affair,
the United States will strengthen its ties with Saudi Arabia and
will target the new Israeli government to counter Iran's presence.
The geopolitical and strategic dynamics concerning the area,
however, will be affect by the increasing influence of the Russian
Federation, Iran and Turkey in the course of the next year.
Central and South America
Although the US has regained some positions in South America, the
Chinese presence and, partially also the Russian one, in the area
will produce effects on the hegemonic attempt of the Trump
Administration. The issue of migration is destined to play an
increasing crucial role in Trump's Central American policy.
Chairman, Vision & Global Trends, International Institute for
Global Analyses, www.vision-gt.eu
An early version of the text appeared with The Diplomat magazine
(interview with Kuo Mercy)
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