Manal Saadi Postgraduate researcher in International Relations and Diplomacy at the Geneva-based UMEF University
doc.dr.Jasna Cosabic professor of IT law and EU law at Banja Luka College,
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Aleksandra Krstic Studied in Belgrade (Political Science) and in Moscow (Plekhanov’s IBS). Currently, a post-doctoral researcher at the Kent University in Brussels (Intl. Relations). Specialist for the
MENA-Balkans frozen and controlled conflicts.
Dr. Swaleha Sindhi is Assistant Professor in the Department of Educational Administration, the Maharaja Sayajirao University of
Baroda, India. Decorated educational practitioner Dr. Sindhi is a frequent columnist on related topics, too. She is the Vice President
of Indian Ocean Comparative Education Society (IOCES). Contact:
It is an Ankara-based
journalist and notable author.
She is engaged with the leading Turkish dailies and weeklies for
nearly three decades as a columnist, intervieweer and editor.
Her words are prolifically published and quoted in Turkish,
French an English.
By İLNUR ÇEVIK Modified from the original: They killed 1 Saddam and created 1,000 others (Daily Sabah)
Aine O’Mahony Aine O'Mahony has a bachelor in Law and Political Science at
the Catholic Institute of Paris and is currently a master's student
of Leiden University in the International Studies programme.Contact:
Elodie Pichon Elodie Pichon has a
bachelor in Law and Political Science at the Catholic Institute of
Paris and is currently doing a MA in Geopolitics, territory and
Security at King's College London. Contact :
a MA candidate of the George
Washington University, Elliott School of International Affairs. Her
research focus is on cross-Pacific security and Asian studies,
particularly on the Sino-U.S. relations and on the foreign policy
and politics of these two.
ALESSANDRO CIPRI Born in Chile and raised in Rome, Alessandro
Cipri has just finished his postgraduate studies at the department
of War Studies of King's College London, graduating with distinction
from the Master's Degree in "Intelligence and International
Security". Having served in the Italian Army's "Alpini" mountain
troops, he has a keen interest in national security, military
strategy, insurgency theory, and terrorism studies. His Master's
dissertation was on the impact of drug trafficking on the evolution
of the Colombian FARC.
Ms. Lingbo ZHAO is a candidate of the Hong Kong Baptist
University, Department of Government and International Studies. Her
research interest includes Sino-world, Asia and cross-Pacific.
Elodie Pichon, Ms. Elodie Pichon, Research Fellow of the IFIMES Institute, DeSSA Department. This native Parisian is a Master in Geopolitics,
Territory and Security from the King’s College, London, UK.
Ambassador Muhamed Sacirbey currently lectures on Digital-Diplomacy. "Mo"
has benefited from a diverse career in investment banking & diplomacy, but
his passion has been the new avenues of communication. He was Bosnia &
Herzegovina's first Ambassador to the United Nations, Agent to the
International Court of Justice, Foreign Minister & Signatory of the Rome
Statute establishing the International Criminal Court. He also played
American football opting for a scholarship to Tulane University in New
Orleans after being admitted to Harvard, oh well!!
Amanda Janoo is an Alternative
Economic Policy Adviser to governments and development
organizations. Graduate from Cambridge University with an MPhil in
Development Studies, Amanda worked at the United Nations Industrial
Development Organization (UNIDO) supporting government's with
evidence-based industrial policy design for inclusive and
sustainable growth. Her research focus is on the relationship
between international trade and employment generation. She has
worked throughout Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa promoting greater
economic self-determination and empowerment.
Michael dr. Logies,
Endy Bayuni The writer, editor-in-chief of
The Jakarta Post, took part
in the Bali Civil Society and Media Forum, organized by the
Institute for Peace and Democracy and the Press Council, on Dec.5-6.
Bellevrat is the WEO Energy Analysts
Kira West Kira West is the WEO Energy Analysts
Victor Davis Hanson— NRO contributor Victor Davis
Hanson is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and the author,
most recently, of The Second World Wars: How the First Global
Conflict Was Fought and Won.
Chief Research Fellow at the Primakov Institute of World Economy and
International Relations (Moscow, Russia). In 1989-1991 was a member
of Soviet negotiating team at START-1 negotiations (Defense and
Ingrid Stephanie Noriega
Ingrid Stephanie Noriega is junior specialist in International
Relations, Latina of an immense passion for human rights, democratic
accountability, and conflict resolution studies as it relates to
international development for the Latin America and Middle East –
regions of her professional focus.
Syeda Dhanak Fatima Hashmi
Author is a Foreign Policy Analyst and Research Head
at a think tank based in Islamabad. She has done Master of
Philosophy (M.Phil.) in Governance and Public Policy. Her areas of
research include both regional as well as global issues of
contemporary international relations.
Pia Victoria Poppenreiter Davos: The Other Side of the Mirror
An “inventor, startup guru, conceptualist and CEO” hangs out at the
world’s four-day power lunch
Jomo Kwame Sundaram,
a former economics professor, was United
Nations Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development, and
received the Wassily Leontief Prize for Advancing the Frontiers of
Dr. Guy Millière,
a professor at the University of Paris, is the author of
27 books on France and Europe.
Earlier version published by the GeterstoneInstitute under the title
France Slowly Sinking into Chaos
Dutch - Nederlands Belangrijke nieuws
French - Français
Nouvelles importantes German - Deutsch
Deeper meanings of the Hong Kong protests Is China a game changer or yet another winner?
Prof. Anis H. Bajrektarević,
Does our history only appear overheated, while it is essentially calmly
predetermined? Is it directional or conceivable, dialectic and eclectic or
cyclical, and therefore cynical? Surely, our
history warns. Does it also provide for a hope? Hence, what is in front of
us: destiny or future?
Theory loves to teach us that extensive debates on what kind of economic
system is most conductive to human wellbeing is what consumed most of our
civilizational vertical. However, our history has a different say: It seems
that the manipulation of the global political economy – far more than the
introduction of ideologies – is the dominant and arguably more durable way
that human elites usually conspired to build or break civilizations, as
planned projects. Somewhere down the process, it deceived us, becoming the
* * * * * *
One of the biggest (nearly schizophrenic) dilemmas of liberalism, ever since
David Hume and Adam Smith, was an insight into reality: Whether the world is
essentially Hobbesian or Kantian. As postulated, the main task
of any liberal state is to enable and maintain wealth of its nation, which
of course rests upon wealthy individuals inhabiting the particular state.
That imperative brought about another dilemma: if wealthy individual, the
state will rob you, but in absence of it, the pauperized masses will
The invisible hand of Smith’s followers have found the satisfactory
answer – sovereign debt. That ‘invention’ meant: relatively strong central
government of the state. Instead of popular control through the democratic
checks-&-balance mechanism, such a state should be rather heavily indebted.
Debt – firstly to local merchants, than to foreigners – is a far more
powerful deterrent, as it resides outside the popular check domain.
With such a mixed blessing, no empire can easily demonetize its
legitimacy, and abandon its hierarchical but invisible and unconstitutional
controls. This is how a debtor empire was born. A blessing or totalitarian
curse? Let us briefly examine it.
The Soviet Union – much as (the pre-Deng’s) China itself – was far more of a
classic continental military empire (overtly brutal; rigid, authoritative,
anti-individual, apparent, secretive), while the US was more a
financial-trading empire (covertly coercive; hierarchical, yet asocial,
exploitive, pervasive, polarizing). On opposite sides of the globe and
cognition, to each other they remained
enigmatic, mysterious and incalculable:
of permafrost vs. Fish of the warm seas. Sparta vs. Athens. Rome vs.
Phoenicia… However, common for the both was a super-appetite for
omnipresence. Along with the price to pay for it.
Consequently, the Soviets went bankrupt by mid 1980s – they cracked under
its own weight, imperially overstretched. So did the Americans – the ‘white
man burden’ fractured them already by the Vietnam war, with the Nixon
shock only officializing it. However, the US imperium managed to survive
and to outlive the Soviets. How?
The United States, with its financial capital (or an outfoxing illusion of
it), evolved into a debtor empire through the Wall Street guaranties.
Titanium-made Sputnik vs. gold mine of printed-paper… Nothing
epitomizes this better than the words of the longest serving US Federal
Reserve’s boss, Alan Greenspan, who famously quoted J.B. Connally to then
French President Jacques Chirac: “True, the dollar is our currency, but your
problem”. Hegemony vs. hegemoney.
House of Cards
Conventional economic theory teaches us that money is a universal equivalent
to all goods. Historically, currencies were a space and time-related, to say
locality-dependent. However, like no currency ever before, the US dollar
became – past the WWII – the universal equivalent to all other moneys of the
world. According to history of currencies, the core component of the
non-precious metals’ money is a so-called promissory note – intangible
belief that, by any given point in future, a particular shiny paper
(self-styled as money) will be smoothly exchanged for real goods.
Thus, roughly speaking, money is nothing else but a civilizational construct
about imagined/projected tomorrow – that the next day (which nobody has ever
seen in the history of humankind, but everybody operates with) definitely
comes (i), and that this tomorrow will certainly be a better day then our
yesterday or even our today (ii).
This and similar types of collective constructs (horizontal and vertical)
over our social contracts hold society together as much as its economy keeps
it alive and evolving. Hence, it is money that powers economy, but our blind
faith in constructed (imagined) tomorrows and its alleged certainty is what
Clearly, the universal equivalent of all equivalents – the US dollar –
follows the same pattern: Bold and widely accepted promise. What does the US
dollar promise when there is no gold cover attached to it ever since the
time of Nixon shock of 1971?
Pentagon promises that the oceanic sea-lanes will remain opened (read:
controlled by the US Navy), pathways unhindered, and that the most traded
world’s commodity – oil, will be delivered. So, it is not a crude or its
delivery what is a cover to the US dollar – it is a promise that oil
of tomorrow will be deliverable. That is a real might of the US dollar,
which in return finances Pentagon’s massive expenditures and shoulders its
Admired and feared, Pentagon further fans our planetary belief in tomorrow’s
deliverability – if we only keep our faith in dollar (and hydrocarbons’
energized economy), and so on and on in perpetuated circle of mutual
These two pillars of the US might from the East coast (the US Treasury/Wall
Street and Pentagon) together with the two pillars of the West coast – both
financed and amplified by the US dollar, and spread through the open
sea-routs (Silicone Valley and Hollywood), are an essence of the US posture.
This very nature of power explains why the Americans have missed to take the
mankind into completely other direction; towards the non-confrontational,
decarbonized, de-monetized/de-financialized and de-psychologized, the
self-realizing and green humankind. In short, to turn history into a moral
success story. They had such a chance when, past the Gorbachev’s
unconditional surrender of the Soviet bloc, and the Deng’s Copernicus-shift
of China, the US – unconstrained as a lonely superpower – solely
dictated terms of reference; our common destiny and direction/s to our
Winner is rarely a game-changer
Sadly enough, that was not the first missed opportunity for the US
to soften and delay its forthcoming, imminent multidimensional imperial
The very epilogue of the WWII meant a full security guaranty for the US:
Geo-economically – 54% of anything manufactured in the world was carrying
the Made in USA label, and geostrategically – the US had
uninterruptedly enjoyed nearly a decade of the ‘nuclear monopoly’. Up to
this very day, the US scores the biggest number of N-tests conducted, the
largest stockpile of nuclear weaponry, and it represents the only power ever
deploying this ‘ultimate weapon’ on other nation. To complete the irony,
Americans enjoy geographic advantage like no other empire before. Save the
US, as Ikenberry notes: “…every major power in the world lives in a crowded
geopolitical neighborhood where shifts in power routinely provoke
counterbalancing”. Look the map, at Russia or China and their packed
surroundings. The US is blessed with its insular position, by neighboring
oceans. All that should harbor tranquility, peace and prosperity,
Why the lonely might, an empire by invitation did not evolve into
empire of relaxation, a generator of harmony? Why does it hold
(extra-judicially) captive more political prisoners on Cuban soil than the
badmouthed Cuban regime has ever had? Why does it remain obsessed with
armament for at home and abroad? Why existential anxieties for at home and
security challenges for abroad ? (Eg. 78% of all weaponry
at disposal in the wider MENA theater is manufactured in the US, while
domestically Americans – only for their civilian purpose – have 1,2 small
arms pieces per capita.)
Why the fall of Berlin Wall 30 years ago marked a beginning of decades of
stagnant or failing incomes in the US (and elsewhere in the OECD world)
coupled with alarming inequalities. What are we talking about here; the
inadequate intensity of our tireless confrontational push or
about the false course of our civilizational direction?
Indeed, no successful and enduring empire does merely rely on coercion, be
it abroad or at home. The grand design of every empire in past rested on a
skillful calibration between obedience and initiative – at home, and between
bandwagoning and engagement – abroad. In XXI century, one wins when one
convinces not when one coerces. Hence, if unable to escape its inner logics
and deeply-rooted appeal of confrontational nostalgia, the prevailing
archrival is only a winner, rarely a game-changer.
To sum up; After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Americans accelerated
expansion while waiting for (real or imagined) adversaries to further
decline, ‘liberalize’ and bandwagon behind the US. Expansion is the path
to security dictatum only exacerbated the problems afflicting the Pax
Americana. That is how the capability of the US to maintain its order
started to erode faster than the capacity of its opponents to challenge it.
A classical imperial self-entrapment!!
The repeated failure to notice and recalibrate its imperial retreat brought
the painful hangovers to Washington by the last presidential elections.
Inability to manage the rising costs of sustaining the imperial order only
increased the domestic popular revolt and political pressure to abandon its
‘mission’ altogether. Perfectly hitting the target to miss everything else …
Hence, Americans are not fixing the world any more. They are only managing
its decline. Look at their (winner) footprint in former Yugoslavia,
Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria – to mention but a few.
* * * * * *
When the Soviets lost their own indigenous ideological matrix and maverick
confrontational stance, and when the US dominated West missed to triumph
although winning the Cold War, how to expect from the imitator to score the
lasting moral or even a momentary economic victory?
Neither more confrontation and more carbons nor more weaponized trade and
traded weapons will save our day. It failed in past, it will fail again any
Interestingly, China opposed the I World, left the II in rift, and ever
since Bandung of 1955 it neither won over nor (truly) joined the III Way.
Today, many see it as a main contestant. But, where is a lasting success?
(The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is what the most attribute as an
instrument of the Chinese planetary posture. Chinese leaders promised
massive infrastructure projects all around by burning trillions of dollars.
Still, numbers are more moderate. As the recent The II BRI Summit has
shown, so far, Chinese companies had invested $90 worldwide. Seems, neither
People’s Republic is as rich as many (wish to) think nor it will be able to
finance its promised projects without seeking for a global private capital.
Such a capital –if ever – will not flow without conditionalities. The Asian
Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the BRICS or ‘New Development’ –
Bank have some $150 billion at hand, and the Silk Road Infrastructure Fund
(SRIF) has up to $40 billion. Chinese state and semi-private companies can
access – according to the OECD estimates – just another $600 billion (much
of it tight) from the home, state-controlled financial sector. That means
that China runs short on the BRI deliveries worldwide. Ergo, either bad news
to the (BRI) world or the conditionalities’ constrained China.)
Greening international relations along with a greening of economy –
geopolitical and environmental understanding, de-acidification and
relaxation is the only way out.
That necessitates both at once: less confrontation over the art-of-day
technology and their monopolies’ redistribution (as preached by the
Sino-American high priests of globalization) as well as the resolute work on
the so-called Tesla-ian implosive/fusion-holistic systems (including
free-energy technologies; carbon-sequestration; antigravity and
self-navigational solutions; bioinformatics and nanorobotics). More of
initiative than of obedience (including more public control over data
hoovering). More effort to excellence (creation) than struggle for
Finally, no global leader has ever in history emerged from a shaky and
distrustful neighborhood, or by offering a little bit more of the same in
lieu of an innovative technological advancement. (Eg. many see the Chinese
5G as an illiberal innovation, which may end up servicing authoritarianism,
anywhere. And indeed, the AI deep learning inspired by biological neurons
(neural science) including its three methods: supervised, unsupervised and
reinforced learning can end up used for the digital authoritarianism,
predictive policing and manufactured social governance based on the
bonus-malus behavioral social credits.)
Ergo, it all starts from within, from at home. Without support from a home
base (including that of Hong Kong,
and Tibet), there is no game changer. China’s home is Asia. Its size and its
centrality along with its impressive output is constraining it enough.
Hence, it is not only a new, non-imitative, turn of technology what is
needed. Without truly and sincerely embracing mechanisms such as the NaM,
ASEAN and SAARC (eventually even the OSCE) and the main champions of
multilateralism in Asia, those being India Indonesia and Japan first of all,
China has no future of
what is planetary awaited – the third force, a game-changer, lasting
visionary and trusted global leader.
Prof. Anis H. Bajrektarević,
Vienna, 16 AUG 2019
To varying degrees, but all throughout a premodern and modern history,
nearly every world’s major foreign policy originator was dependent (and
still depends) on what happens in, and to, Russia. It is not only a size,
but also centrality of Russia that matters. It is as much (if not even
more), as it is an omnipresence of the US and as it is a hyperproduction of
the PR China.
Ergo, it is an uninterrupted flow of manufactured goods to the whole world,
it is balancing of the oversized and centrally positioned one, and it is the
ability to controllably destruct the way in and insert itself of the
peripheral one. The oscillatory interplay of these three is what
characterizes our days.
is chairperson and professor in international law and global political
Vienna, Austria. He has authored six books (for American and
and numerous articles on, mainly, geopolitics energy
Professor is editor of the NY-based GHIR (Geopolitics, History and Intl.
and editorial board member of several similar specialized magazines on three
His 7th book, ‘From WWI to www. – Europe and the World 1918-2018’
has been realised earlier this year. AUGUST 18, 2019
France: Chaos or a New Social Compact?
Dr. Guy Millière
At the end of the parade, a few dozen people release yellow balloons into
the sky and distribute leaflets saying "The yellow vests are not dead." The
police disperse them, quickly and firmly. Moments later, hundreds of "Antifa"
anarchists arrive, throw security barriers on the roadway to erect
barricades, start fires and smash the storefronts of several shops. The
police have a rough time mastering the situation, but early in the evening,
after a few hours, they restore the calm.
A few hours later, thousands of young Arabs from the suburbs gather near the
Arc de Triomphe. They have apparently come to "celebrate" in their own way
the victory of an Algerian soccer team. More storefronts are smashed, more
shops looted. Algerian flags are everywhere. Slogans are belted out: "Long
live Algeria", "France is ours", "Death to France". Signs bearing street
names are replaced by signs bearing the name of Abd el Kader, the religious
and military leader who fought against the French army at the time of the
colonization of Algeria. The police limit themselves to stemming the
violence in the hope that it will not spread.
Around midnight, three leaders of the "yellow vest" movement come out of a
police station and tell a TV reporter that they were arrested early that
morning and imprisoned for the rest of the day. Their lawyer states that
they did nothing wrong and were just "preventively" arrested. He emphasizes
that a law passed in February 2019 allows the French police to arrest any
person suspected of going to a demonstration; no authorization from a judge
is necessary and no appeal possible.
On Friday, July 19, the Algerian soccer team wins again. More young Arabs
gather near Arc de Triomphe to "celebrate" again. The damage is even greater
than eight days before. More police show up; they do almost nothing.
On July 12, two days before Bastille Day, several hundred self-declared
African illegal migrants enter the Pantheon, the monument that houses the
graves of heroes who played major roles in the history of France. There, the
migrants announce the birth of the "Black Vest movement". They demand the
"regularization" of all illegal immigrants on French territory and free
housing for each of them. The police show up but decline to intervene. Most
of the demonstrators leave peacefully. A few who insult the police are
France today is a country adrift. Unrest and lawlessness continue to gain
ground. Disorder has become part of daily life. Polls show that a large
majority reject President Macron. They seem to hate his arrogance and be
inclined not to forgive him. They seem to resent his contempt for the poor;
the way he crushed the "yellow vest" movement, and for his not having paid
even the slightest attention to the protesters' smallest demands, such as
the right to hold a citizen’s referendum like those in Switzerland. Macron
can no longer go anywhere in public without risking displays of anger.
The "yellow vests" seem finally to have stopped demonstrating and given up:
too many were maimed or hurt. Their discontent, however, is still there. It
seems waiting to explode again.
The French police appear ferocious when dealing with peaceful protesters,
but barely able to prevent groups such as ‘Antifa’ from causing violence.
Therefore, now at the end of each demonstration, "Antifa" show up. The
French police seem particularly cautious when having to deal with young
Arabs and illegal migrants. The police have been given orders. They know
that young Arabs and illegal migrants could create large-scale riots. Three
months ago, in Grenoble, the police were pursuing some young Arabs on a
stolen motorcycle, who were accused of theft. While fleeing, they had an
accident. Five days of mayhem began.
President Macron looks like an authoritarian leader when he faces the
disgruntled poor. He never says he is sorry for those who have lost an eye
or a hand or suffered irreversible brain damage from extreme police
brutality. Instead, he asked the French parliament to pass a law that almost
completely abolishes the right to protest, the presumption of innocence and
that allows the arrest of anyone, anywhere, even without cause. The law was
In June, the French parliament passed another law, severely punishing anyone
who says or writes something that might contain "hate speech". The law is so
vague that an American legal scholar, Jonathan Turley, felt compelled to
react. "France has now become one of the biggest international threats to
freedom of speech", he wrote.
Macron does not appear authoritarian, however, with violent anarchists. When
facing young Arabs and illegal migrants, he looks positively weak. He knows
what the former interior minister, Gérard Collomb, said in November 2018,
while resigning from government:
"Communities in France are engaging in conflict with one another more and
more and it is becoming very violent... today we live side by side, I fear
that tomorrow it will be face to face".
Macron also knows what former President François Hollande said after serving
his term as president: "France is on the verge of partition".
Macron knows that the partition of France already exists. Most Arabs and
Africans live in no-go-zones, apart from the rest of the population, where
they accept the presence of non-Arabs and non-Africans less and less. They
do not define themselves as French, except when they say that France will
belong to them. Reports show that most seem filled with a deep rejection of
France and Western civilization. An incressing number seem to place their
religion above their citizenship; many seem radicalised and ready to fight.
Macron seems not to want to fight. Instead, he has chosen to appease them.
He is single-mindedly pursuing his plans to institutionalise Islam in
France. Three months ago, the Muslim Association for Islam of France (AMIF)
was created. One branch will handle the cultural expansion of Islam and take
charge of "the fight against anti-Muslim racism". Another branch will be
responsible for programs that train imams and build mosques. This autumn, a
"Council of Imams of France" will be established. The main leaders of the
AMIF are (or were until recently) members of the Muslim Brotherhood, a
movement designated as a terrorist organisation in Egypt, Bahrain, Syria,
Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates -- but not in France.
French President is aware of the demographic data. They show that the Muslim
population in France will grow significantly in the coming years. (The
economist Charles Gave wrote recently that by 2057, France will have a
Muslim majority). Macron can see that it will soon be impossible for anyone
to be elected President without relying on the Muslim vote, so he acts
Macron apparently sees that the discontent that gave birth to the "yellow
vest" movement still is there. He appears to think that repression will be
enough to prevent any further uprising, and so does nothing to remedy the
causes of the discontent.
The "yellow vest" movement was born of a revolt against exorbitantly high
taxes on fuel, and harsh government measures against cars and motorists.
These measures included reduced speed limits – 90 km/h on most highways --
and more speed-detection cameras; a sharp rise in the penalties on tickets,
as well as complex and expensive annual motor vehicle controls. French taxes
on fuels recently rose again and are now the highest in Europe (70% of the
price paid at the pump). Other measures against the use of automobiles and
motorists still in force are especially painful for the poor. They were
already chased from the suburbs by intolerant newcomers, and now have to
live -- and drive -- even farther from where they work.
President has made no decision to remedy the disastrous economic situation
in France. When he was elected, taxes, duties and social charges represented
almost 50% of GDP. Government spending represented 57% of GDP (the highest
among developed countries). The ratio of national debt to GDP was almost
Taxes, duties, social charges and government spending remain at the same
level now as when Macron came in. The debt-to-GDP ratio is 100% and growing.
The French economy is not creating jobs. Poverty remains extremely high: 14%
of the population earn less than 855 euros ($950) a month.
else to explain that the post-WWII come-and-help-our-recovery slogan
Gastarbeiter willkommen became an Auslander Raus roar in a matter
of only two decades. Suddenly, our national purifiers extensively shout
‘stop überfremdung of EU, we need de-ciganization’ of our
societies, as if it historically does not always end up in one and only
possible way– self-barbarization. In response, the socially marginalized and
ghettoized ‘foreigners’ are calling for the creation of
gastarbeiterpartie. Indeed, the first political parties of foreigners
are already created in Austria, with similar calls in Germany, France and
the Netherlands. Their natural coalition partner would never be any of the
main political parties. We should know by now, how the diverting of the
mounting socio-economic discontent and generational disfranchising through
ethno engineering will end up, don’t we?” – warned prof. Anis H.
Bajrektarevic years ago in his brave and farsighted essay ‘Denazification
urgently needed in Europe’.
Consequently, our top executives pay no attention to the growing cultural
disaster also seizing the country. The educational system is crumbling. An
increasing percentage of students graduate from high school without knowing
how to write a sentence free of errors that make incomprehensible anything
they write. Christianity is disappearing. Most non-Muslim French no longer
define themselves as Christians. The fire that ravaged the Cathedral of
Notre Dame de Paris was officially an ‘accident’, but it was only one of the
many Christian religious buildings in the country that were recently
destroyed. Every week, churches are vandalised -- to the general
indifference of the public. In just the first half of 2019, 22 churches
The main concern of Macron and the French government seems not to be the
risk of riots, the public's discontent, the disappearance of Christianity,
the disastrous economic situation, or Islamization and its consequences.
Instead, it is climate change. Although the amount of France's carbon
dioxide emissions is infinitesimal (less than 1% of the global total),
combatting "human-induced climate change" appears Macron's absolute
A Swedish girl, Greta Thunberg, age 16, -- nevertheless the guru of the
"fight for the climate" in Europe -- was recently invited to the French
National Assembly by members of parliament who support Macron. She delivered
a speech, promising that the "irreversible destruction" of the planet will
begin very soon. A Baby-revolutionary added that political leaders "are not
mature enough" and need lessons from children. MPs who support Macron
applauded warmly. She received a Prize of Freedom, just created, which will
be given each year to people "fighting for the values of
those who landed in Normandy in 1944 to liberate Europe". It is probably
reasonable to assume that not one of those who landed in Normandy in 1944
thought he was fighting to save the climate. Such minor details, however,
seem beyond Macron and the parliamentarians who support him.
Macron and the French government also seem unconcerned that Jews -- driven
by the rise of anti-Semitism, and understandably worried about court
decisions infused with the spirit of submission to violent Islam --continue
to flee from France.
Kobili Traore, the man who murdered Sarah Halimi in 2017 while chanting
suras from the Qur'an and shouting that the Jews are Sheitan
(Arabic for "Satan") was found not guilty. Traore had apparently smoked
cannabis before the murder, so the judges decided that he was not
responsible for his acts. Traore will soon be released from prison; what
happens if he smokes cannabis again?
A few weeks after the murder of Halimi, three members of a Jewish family
were assaulted, tortured and held hostage in their home by a group of five
men who said that "Jews have money" and "Jews must pay". The men were
arrested; all were Muslim. The judge who indicated them announced that their
actions were "not anti-Semitic".
On July 25, 2019 when the Israeli soccer team Maccabi Haifa was competing in
Strasbourg, the French government limited the number of Israeli supporters
in the stadium to 600, not one more. A thousand had bought plane tickets to
come to France to attend the match. The French government also banned the
waving of Israeli flags at the game or anywhere in the city. Nonetheless, in
the name of "free speech", the French Department of the Interior permitted
anti-Israeli demonstrations in front of the stadium, and Palestinian flags
and banners saying "Death to Israel" were there. The day before the match,
at a restaurant near the stadium, some Israelis were violently attacked.
"The demonstrations against Israel are approved in the name of freedom of
expression, but the authorities forbid supporters of Maccabi Haifa to raise
the Israeli flag, it is unacceptable," said Aliza Ben Nun, Israel's
ambassador to France.
The other day, a plane full of French Jews leaving France arrived in Israel.
More French Jews will soon go. The departure of Jews to Israel entails
sacrifices: some French real estate agents take advantage of the wish of
many Jewish families to leave, so they buy and sell properties owned by Jews
at a price far lower than their market value.
Fighting the ghost
Macron will remain as president until May 2022. Several leaders of the
parties of the center-left (such as the Socialist Party) and center-right
(The Republicans) joined The Republic on the Move, the party he created two
years ago. After that, the Socialist Party and The Republicans electorally
collapsed. Macron's main opponent in 2022 is likely to be the same as in
2017: Marine Le Pen, the leader of the populist National Rally.
Although Macron is widely unpopular and widely hated, he will probably use
the same slogans as in 2017: that he is the last bastion of hope against
"chaos" and "fascism." He has a strong chance of being elected again. Anyone
who reads the political program of the National Rally can see that Le Pen is
not a fascist. Also, anyone who looks at the situation in France may wonder
if France has not already begun to sink into chaos.
The sad situation that reigns in France is not all that different from that
in many other Euriopean countries. A few weeks ago, an African cardinal,
Robert Sarah, published a book, Le soir approche et déjà le jour baisse
("The evening comes, and already the light darkens"). "At the root of the
collapse of the West", he writes, "there is a cultural and identity crisis.
The West no longer knows what it is, because it does not know and does not
want to know what shaped it, what constituted it, what it was and what it
is. (...) This self-asphyxiation leads naturally to a decadence that opens
the way to new barbaric civilizations."
That is exactly what is happening in France -- and Europe.
Dr. Guy Millière, a professor at the University of Paris, is the author of
27 books on France and Europe.
Earlier version published by the GeterstoneInstitute under the title
France Slowly Sinking into Chaos
AUGUST 14, 2019
Fracking Societies through manufactured
Carlos Pereyra Méle
If society is considered as an open, complex and dynamic
system. This system is attributed for the quality of both organizing and
disorganizing. Constructive chaos occurs when there is an attempt to
harness these destructive and seemingly random forces, for strategic
The chaos strategy proposes the artificial creation of
disorder and violence in a country or areas that are considered as an
object. It can be secured through an unconventional war - use of different
methods to achieve internal convulsions within a target country or the use
of armed intermediaries to lead to a civil war scenario in a target
country. It is a standardized regime change approach when to topple
government or to trigger political collapse of a country or entire region.
Chaos theory aroused great interest from a sector of the
American elite. Different authors and protagonists, academics and
practitioners, took theoretical premises of it to understand the mechanics
of social movements in countries and operate on them to obtain designated
objectives. They would formulate their application as a strategy, through a
built chaos, for the achievement of American geostrategic interests.
These models begin with the introduction of a colour
revolution, or a “Spring”. That represents some kind of revolt or navigated
or manufactured ‘spontaneity’ of a street demonstration. Certainly, it
represents a clear cut case of a soft coup, which could then be followed by
a hard blow, through an unconventional war. If the first fails, population
is exposed to social engineering methods and hybrid wars, so that they can
escalate into violence, produce civil wars, the results are the change of
government or the collapse of the State itself.
If this sequence is repeated in several countries of the
same region, we can talk about areas that are not integrated (Gap) under
“Gradually, the imperial civilizing mission (Expansion is a path to
Security) got a new form. It became a moral duty – R2P (Responsibility
to Protect), as much as the parental duty is to raise their infant
child. The handsome, masculine and strong Western Prince Charming has
one duty – to emancipate his Eastern Sleeping Beauty. Giving a ‘kiss’
meant projecting the western physical military presence, and commerce” –
remarks prof. Anis H. Bajrektarevic in his brilliant geo-philosophical
synthesis “Imperialism of Lullaby”.
Hence, what is a chaos?
Engineering the Chaos
Chaos theory applied as a strategy is simply a form of
Based on a comparison of the main guidelines of the
strategy of chaos and hybrid warfare, we find under deduction that chaos
theory is understood as a variant of the hybrid and fourth generation
paradigm of wars. The objective is to change the regime of a country marked
as objective, but it should not be ruled out that the collapse of the state
structure is not a desired objective.
As we have observed in all these cases, Chaos Theory has
been used as a geostrategic foundation of the US to strengthen its role as a
global hegemon after the Cold War, mainly in the Middle East area.
Chaos theory seeks to provoke, induce attitudes,
behaviours, through social engineering to the population of a target country
in addition to infiltrating external elements, violence spreads like a
computer virus, the expected result is that the system will “reset/restart”
with a change of government or such a state disintegrated. If that is the
last case it will also be favourable for the US anyway.
Based on the historical methodology to analyse, and the
prospective methodology to project, based on trend tracking. Its future use
in other scenarios is not ruled out. Just as Arab springs and colour
revolutions have occurred in the former Soviet space, this does not mean
that they cannot be introduced outside those geographical areas, according
to the interests of contenders fighting for their interests. Many of these
patterns mentioned above are observed in Venezuela to date.
Chaos theory and strategy is a paradigmatic methodology
of the US, in the geopolitical plane its main objective is the fragmentation
and fracturing of the Eurasian belt.
We must emphasize that this search for an unquestionable
American unipolar hegemony project found its counterweight in recent years
with the participation and active intervention in various scenarios and
global situations of China and Russia, which to date seem to seek to
consolidate a strategic partnership.
Pereyra Méle is a Director of the Argentina-based Dossier Geopolitico
BiH: Mystical Islam
heals wounds of Sarajevo’s dramatic past On
Sarajevo, the capital of Bosnia and Herzegovina gives a glimpse of the past
life in the Ottoman Empire. The streets of the trade quarter,
Bascarsija are teeming with shops selling crafts of all sorts, and
cafes serving dark, strong Turkish coffee. Only a closer look at old
buildings will reveal walls pierced with shrapnels and bullets all
over like a Swiss cheese. This is a dark hint to the recent past. 25
years ago this city endured the longest ever city siege in the modern
history. It was perpetrated in 1992-1995 by Orthodox Serb military in
response to Bosnian’s (majority Muslims) decision to separate
man and three doves
A quarter of the century is a
relatively short time to heal wounds and scars of the war and the
reconciliation process hasn’t even started. In the years
following atrocities of the war, Bosnian population saw a steady grow
of its Muslim population. Revival and increased interest in Islam was
seen by many Bosniaks as a way to find consolation and meaning in
this challenging peace agreement. Alongside this process, the
mystical part of Islam, Sufism, also played an important role for
many Bosniaks (Muslim Bosnians) in reconciling the tragic
cemetery is looking down on Sarajevo
I arrive to Sarajevo
just before the Islamic holy month of fasting and reflection, Ramazan
(Bosnian pronunciation of Ramadhan).
There is no better time to explore the role of mystical Sufism in the
lives of Bosnia’s Muslims.
pray and recite
is an Islamic teacher in the High Economic School of Sarajevo and is
often referred to as Mualima (the
teacher, the wise woman) by her students. She willingly explains to
me some aspects of Sufism:
-Most of Muslims are only following
rituals of Islam such as prayer, fasting and charity. But there is so
much more of spirituality in Islam that could be beneficial for the
society! It’s about connecting with the divine element on a
more personal, emotive level.
Sufism emphasises the
importance of kindness towards all living beings, discipline, love
and change from within. On an individual level, closer connection
with God (Allah) can be achieved through different means, for
instance through reciting zikr (dhikr):
a rhythmic repetition of the attributes of God. Such ceremonies of
zikr are often organised
in tekijas, religious
schools, and can be open for males, females, or mixed communities.
The ceremony is led by a sheikh,
a learned Sufi who helps other participants to reach closeness with
God through the practices.
Gazi Husrev-beg Mosque before Friday prayer
sound of soul
It’s the third
week of Ramazan, just over one hour before the sunset. The
doors of recently constructed tekija at Kovaci district
of Sarajevo’s old town are opening. A lively, blonde lady Amela
welcomes the guests. Soon the ney
(traditional Ottoman reed flute) concert will start.
players in front of the Kovaci tekija
lucky guests are most likely family and friends of the performers –
this is a closed and very intimate event. In a few minutes everyone
is seated on the sofas in the main room and the Sufis start to play
on their reed flutes. The sound of neys
and the beat of tambourine are entrancing, otherworldly, with a touch
of longing for the unseen, better reality.
It is not
difficult to understand why ney is
considered so special in Sufism. It is also closely associated with
the most prominent mystical poet of Islam, Mawlana Jalaluddin
explains: -Ney is the instrument of soul. It is very difficult to
play, one really needs to give oneself to make a good sound on it.
Only a pure soul can play it.
And then, as if to test my
intentions, she challenges me to try playing on her ney.
I take the flute in my hands and blow into it with uncertainty. A
squeaky sound with some meager potential of music comes out of it.
One of the musicians nods with respect and says that it took her one
month only to learn how to blow this thing.
musicians meet regularly at the tekija
and play various ilahijes
(religious songs) but also perform concerts in other cities. To them,
playing ney is not just
a joy but a way to heal soul and reach for the unity with God that
all Sufis strive for. This is a way to express love, gratitude and
patience but also to heal the wounds of one’s soul.
person has a story to tell. For many, the practices such as zikr and
music are ways to reconcile scarred memories of the dramatic
Peace in ethnically
diverse country such as Bosnia and Herzegovina is a delicate art that
needs to respond to its citizens feeling of equity, economic needs
and sense of social cohesion. Economic growth and institutional
improvements are still under progress for this young state and the
double digit unemployment rates are a challenge yet to be tackled.
Yet, moderate approach towards Islam
and other religions, secularism and inter-cultural co-habitation are
some of the important features that help the Bosnians to look
hopefully in the future. In this backdrop, the Sufi’s emphasis
on individual improvement that benefits the self, the community and
the world is all-the more important.
Mads Jacobsen Mads is an intern at PCRC. Mads Jacobsen is from Denmark and is currently
pursuing his Master's degree in 'Development and International Relations' at
University of Bihac, Faculty of Education,
Department of English Language and Literature - undergraduate
University of Banja Luka, Faculty of Philology, Department of English Language
and Literature - graduate study Rakesh Krishnan Simha
New Zealand-based journalist and foreign affairs analyst. According to him, he
writes on stuff the media distorts, misses or ignores.
Rakesh started his career in 1995 with New Delhi-based Business World magazine,
and later worked in a string of positions at other leading media houses such as
India Today, Hindustan Times, Business Standard and the Financial Express, where
he was the news editor.
He is the Senior Advisory Board member of one of the fastest growing Europe’s
foreign policy platforms: Modern Diplomacy.
Damiel Scalea Daniele Scalea, geopolitical
analyst, is Director-general of IsAG (Rome Institute of Geopolitics) and Ph.D.
Candidate in Political studies at the Sapienza University, Rome. Author of three
books, is frequent contributor and columnist to various Tv-channels and
Alessio Stilo, Research Associate at Institute of High
Studies in Geopolitics and Auxiliary Sciences (IsAG), Rome, Italy, and Ph.D.
researcher at University of Padova, is IMN Country Representative in Italy.
Tomislav Jakić Foreign Policy Advisor to former Croatian
President Stjepan Mesić
Zlatko Hadžidedić Graduate of the London School of Economics,
prof. Zlatko Hadžidedićis a prominent thinker,
prolific author of numerous books, and indispensable political figure of the
former Yugoslav socio-political space in 1990s, 2000s and 2010s.
Mr. Nicola Bilotta Nicola Bilotta has a BA and a MA
in History from Università degli Studi di Milano and a MSc in Economic History
from the London School of Economics. He works as a Global Finance Research
Assistant at The Banker (Financial Times) and collaborates as an external
researcher at ISAG (Istituto di Alti Studi di Geopolitica e Scienze Ausiliari)
Markus Wauran Date and Place of Birth: April 22, 1943 – Amurang,
North Sulawesi, IndonesiaEducation: Bachelor in Public
Writer was a member of the House of Representatives
of Indonesia (DPR/MPR-RI) period of 1987-1999, and Chairman of
Committee X, cover Science and Technology, Environment and National
Development Planning (1988-1997).
Currently as Obsever of Nuclear for peace.
Sooyoung Hu Attached to the US-based Berkeley University,
Sooyoung Hu is a scholar at its Political Science and Peace and Conflict
Studies Department. Miss Hu focuses on international relations, international
organizations and its instruments.
Senahid LAVIĆ Nizar Visram Nizar
Visramis a Ottawa-based free-lance writer from Zanzibar, Tanzania.
Recently retired Senior lecturer on Development studies, he extensively
publishes in over 50 countries on 4 continents. He can be reached at nizar1941(at)gmail.com.
Robert Leonard Rope
He studied at the University of
He lives in: San Francisco, California: San Francisco, California, USA
Dragan Bursac, Journalist
Dr. Enis OMEROVIĆ
Max Hess Max Hess is a senior political risk analyst
with the London-based AEK international, specializing in Europe and Eurasia.
Ananya Bordoloi Ananya Bordoloi is a Malaysia based researcher in the fields
of international relations, global governance and human rights. Author has
previously worked with Amnesty International in research and data collection
capacity, and for a publishing company as a pre-editor.
Robert J. Burrowes has a lifetime commitment to understanding and
ending human violence. He has done extensive research since 1966 in an effort to
understand why human beings are violent and has been a nonviolent activist since
1981. He is the author of ‘Why
Violence?’His email address is email@example.com
his website is here.
Amel Ouchenane is
a member of the organization of Security and Strategic studies in Algeria. She
is also Research Assistant at the Idrak Research Center for Studies and
Ms. Ouchenane was researcher at Algiers University from 2011 to 2018.
(Department of International relations and African studies).
Dr. Nafees Ahmad Ph. D., LL.M, Faculty of Legal Studies, South Asian University
(SAARC)-New Delhi, Nafees Ahmad is an Indian national who holds a Doctorate
(Ph.D.) in International Refugee Law and Human Rights. Author teaches and writes
on International Forced Migrations, Climate Change Refugees & Human Displacement
Refugee, Policy, Asylum, Durable Solutions and Extradition issues.
Sinta Stepani International relations specialists
based in São Paulo, Brazil.
Professor of the World History
at the Geneva School of Diplomacy and International Relations. He is
also senior anlaysit at the Geneva
International Peace Research Institute (GIPRI)
Juan Martin González Cabañas
Juan Martin González Cabañas
is a senior researcher and analyst at the Dossier Geopolitico
Dr. Andrew Sheng is
distinguished fellow of the Asia Global Institute at the
University of Hong Kong and a member of the UNEP Advisory Council on